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Sporadic cotton business last week as May Day approaches

May '07
Today represented the lowest monthly close that we have had since late 2004 and that was when ending stocks were 5 million bales compared to the growing stocks to use of 10 million bales or more in the U.S for the 06/07 marketing year. The specs may have added to their short position last week and being the last trading day of the month, they could have been aggressive for their month end book.

Spec position is expected to get shorter tomorrow as the Commitment of Traders report showed they went to 9.1% for the week ending April 24th vs 8.8% the week before. Cert stocks continue to grow to over 725,000 b/c with another 10,000 awaiting review.

Showers and soil moisture are also increasing in the West Texas non irrigated areas as well as the Memphis Delta area which had the driest March on record and badly needed some rain to start planting.

Business was sporadic last week and over the weekend as China is on holiday this week and expect this weeks sales and export report to fall back to average sales and shipments close to 300,000 b/c each.

Very difficult to find friendly news at the moment and we can only hope specs have increased their short positions enough to avoid more significant selling as we work to hold the 49.25 level in N'07 and 54.10 in Z'07 which are only 50 pts above life of contract lows.

This sideways consolidation is key to help build a bottom technically and make a push back to the upside. Volume was respectable at a combined 18,000 futures and 8,500 options.

The 9 day moving average is at 50.77 compared to the 50 day moving average at 53.59. RSI is at 28.16.

Click to view graphical presentation:


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