It is becoming quite clear that the US is now active in its role as residual supplier, since foreign origins are either sold out, down to the last 20-30% of their exportable surplus or simply too expensive. From now until new crop becomes available, most of the world's import needs will have to be satisfied with US cotton.
Even though the market remains depressed because of what is seen as burdensome stocks in the US, it does not take a lot of imagination to see these stocks disappear in a hurry. At this point, the US has about 10.4 mio bales left for sale, which at first glance looks like a lot, but if weekly export sales were to continue at a pace of 400'000 bales a week between May and September, it would take care of 8.8 mio bales by the end of September and leave just 1.6 mio bales unsold.