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World cotton production 2007 projected at 116.00mn bales

May '07
New York cotton futures came under pressure at week's end as the Friday release by USDA of the world supply demand report verified the long held view for both a further decline in both U.S. exports and domestic consumption. Friday's activity brought about a new life of contract low in July. Yet, the market continues its attempt to hold the current level as exports have increased inline with both Chinese purchases as well as unseasonably very large buying by other traditional U.S. markets.

International mills had sensed the market's attempt to hold the prior lows and made volume purchases at abnormally cheap prices. While recent weekly export sales had rocketed higher, the prior eight and one half months had anemic sales volume. The demand for cotton that I had felt would surface below 50 and 52 cents only surfaced near the 47-49 cent level. Nevertheless, with increasing U.S carryover, the old crop July contract has very questionable upside momentum above 50 cents. The new crop December contract remains under pressure from increasing U.S. and world carryover as well as generally good crop development across the Northern Hemisphere.

USDA's May world supply demand report increased the U.S. crop 20,000 bales to 21.6 million. Domestic consumption was lowered 50,000 bales to 4.9 million and exports were lowered 250,000 bales to 13.5 million. Thus ending stocks were raised 300,000 bales to 9.5 million. Hopefully, these estimates will prove to be correct, but there is considerable evidence that could justify lowering domestic consumption another 100,000 bales to 4.8 million.

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