Back to normal after some fireworks on Wednesday. We spent the majority of the day in a very narrow range with volume back to the recent average of 17,000 estimated in futures in 10,000 in options. Part of the reason could have been the export sales report which was below the recent weeks average with only 300,000 in sales and shipments of only 305,000.
This is way below what we need to average through July to reach the USDA number of 13.25 million bales. Weather is still a concern in Texas with wet cool conditions and the hot dry weather in Georgia is not getting better. This may give the bulls some fuel long term, but in the meantime we should see strong scale up trade selling.
The market was unable to break 50 cents in N'07 and we traded the majority of the day around 49.50 c/lb. Along with the blending of the A index and the stronger market, the Indian quote went nominal today which will allow the higher Brazilian quote to enter the equation and give more incentive to redeem large amounts of loan cotton.
Technically, the picture is looking much better and the specs may try to give the buy side a try. However, if they run into heavy trade selling along the way, they might change their mind. We will keep an eye on it as we approach FND as the spread between July and Dec has been under pressure recently.
Cert stocks are holding steady above 700,000 bales and we will wait a few more days to see if we can take this rally to the next level.
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