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ECOM daily cotton markets recap

May '07
The market came off as the roll is starting to get stronger and the N/Z spread got out close to 540 pts. The spread seems to be the main feature for directing the market at the moment with volume light at only 8,000 futures and 5,000 options.

We seem to be getting stuck in a trading range as the N'07 seems to be caught between the 9 and 50 day moving averages. We will have to see where the market breaks out if we continue this sideways pattern.

The ACSA convention was held this weekend in Dallas and we were treated to a German invasion as Manfred Schiefer hosted.

There was more confirmation that there is only 2.5 mb's left in the loan which is 1 million bales less than what as originally reported. The U.S. crop even under the dry conditions in the Southeast is still looking optimistic.

They extended the insurance deadline to June 15th for the growers in Georgia and the other dry areas that are having trouble getting the crop in the ground.

The 6-10 day forecast does show some chances for some much needed rain so we will continue to monitor this area. Across the rest of the growing belt, the plantings are very close to the 5-year average.

Technically, the market will find more support at Tuesday's low of 49.90 and 49.25 with upside resistance at 50.75 and Friday's 4-week high of 51.21. We seem to be getting caught in a trading range that may find the Z'07 moving between 54.50 and 56.50 with us currently right in the middle.

Specs are still interested to test the highs, but demand is slow and July expiration is nearby.

Click to view graphical presentation:


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