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ECOM daily cotton markets recap

Jun '07
Last trading day of the month as all commodities closed strong including cotton making a new 5 week high and over 500 pts from the lows in Z'07 set only 2 weeks ago @ 51.60. The Chinese stock market rebounded today as well and the Dow Jones was unchanged as most markets were in the green today.

The volume was above average today with an estimated 35,000 futures and 15,000 options. The spread from N/Z was a main feature as we only have 15 days and still almost 120,000 open interest in N'07.

The spread got out to almost 580 points today as some locals on the floor heard it needed to get out above 600 pts to cover the penalty cotton.

Export sales were delayed until tomorrow because of Memorial Day and we are expecting something close to last week with 300K in sales and 350K in shipments.

Demand has slowed with the market at these levels, but we are at the mercy of the specs and locals at the moment who are hitting buy stops and having success reaching upside targets.

They may be approaching 10% net long after this weeks activity and will have to see if the selling pressure gets stronger as we challenge 51.50 and 57.00.

Technically, the bulls are now aiming for the N'7 high today of 51.45 and then 52.00 as the bears will look to break downside support @ 50.38 and 49.90 c/lb. This has been a solid performance for the bulls as we settled N'07 on the 50 day moving average and have broken the 50 day MA in Z'07.

Technically we are in shape to go higher as we will have to see how far the specs can take this move.

Click to view graphical presentation:


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