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ECOM daily cotton markets recap

Jun '07
Cotton futures had a pull back today based on some spec and local selling as the N'07 reached a low of 49.60 (down almost 90 pts.) before some trade related buying held up the market. Rains in the Southeast were seen as negative and demand remains quiet as the majority of activity in futures is spent moving out of the N'07.

Open interest is still above 100K contracts and with better than full carry, most are moving out to Z'07 between 580/590 pts. This continues to signal that there may not be a strong taker for the N'07 contract and could lead to a weak expiration that may test the lows in the N'07.

The specs of course will have the last say on that so we will remain cautiously friendly as we wait to see tomorrow's spec hedge report which we estimate to be over 10%. Volume was above average with 26,000 estimated futures and 9,000 options. Obviously the weather is driving the market nearby as we are making the transition from old crop to new crop fundamentals.

Tropical depression Barry moved north through Florida on Friday and spent most of Saturday soaking the Eastern seaboard with much needed precipitation. There are still concerns in far western areas of Georgia as well as West Texas, but the overall outlook was more positive after the weekend.

Planting progress reached 84% after last week compared to the 5-year avg of 88%. USDA comes out with the S&D report next Monday, June 11th as we don't see any big changes anticipated.

Technically, the market does look weak for the N'07 contract closing below the 9-day moving average. The bulls took a bit of a set back today, but the specs will more than likely make another attempt at the highs from last week.

The next target for the bulls will be last weeks high at 51.00 and the bears will try to break the downside support at 49.60 which was today's low. Z'07 looks better technically, but N'07 may be an anchor through expiration.

Click to view graphical presentation:


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