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ECOM daily cotton markets recap

Jun '07
Market gapped higher across the board as we were trading electronically up strongly before the open and then followed through with local and spec buying that found stops at 51.00 in N'07 and made a high close to 52.00.

This certainly put the N'07 chart back on to an upward trend and proved the specs are still in a position to test the highs and have ammunition to do it. Rumors of new index fund longs may be involved as well after the market tested 3 year lows less than 4 weeks ago.

Volume was well above average with futures at 40,000 contracts and 10,000 options. The spec hedge report was only 8.7% compared to 7.4% the week before and a bit lower than our expectations. However, they made up for it today with heavy scale up buying which was also met with trade scale up selling above the 51 and 57 levels in N'07 and Z'07.

It was unusual to see the spread narrow in to the 550 area after reaching 590 yesterday. The open interst in N'07 was still above 100k as of this morning and the specs look like they are comfortable to wait longer to start moving out of July.

Technically todays activity gave a fresh injection to the bullish argument and will give them the confidence to protect any downside correction. The next upside target will be 52.50 and there is downside support at 51.50 and 51.00 along with the 50.60 area that represents the top of the gap where we opened today.

Click to view graphical presentation:


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