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Plexus cotton market report

23
Jun '07
NY futures continued to surge higher this week, as July gained another 250 points to close at 56.50 cents, while December rallied 249 points to close at 61.50 cents.

Since turning the corner on May 14 the futures market has rallied nearly 1000 points without taking much of a breather. The biggest dips during this entire rally amounted to no more than 164 points (May 25-27) and 159 points (June 20-21), which is an indication of this rally's strength and how tough it has been on those who got caught on the short side.

So far this rally has been mainly driven by short speculators getting out, as they have covered about 4.5 mio bales between May 11 and June 20, according to the NYBOT spec/hedge report. Long speculators on the other hand have contributed relatively little to this rally up to this point, since they have increased their holdings by just 1.4 mio bales during that same period.

The scary part here is that some of the larger hedge funds and macro players may be getting ready to join this emerging bull market in cotton, and they do have a lot of money to play with. Collectively, the spec net position has changed from 1.1 mio bales net short to 4.8 mio bales net long over this five week period.

Meanwhile, the trade has been a heavy seller into this rising market, as they have increased their shorts by 3.0 mio bales, going from 11.7 to 14.7 mio bales short, while longs have sold 2.9 mio bales since May 11 and now own just 9.9 mio on the long side.


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