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Cotton market prices report bullish trend

Jul '07
Today is the first delivery date for July07 futures, which has now gone off the board. The USDA acreage report on June 29 posted a more bullish picture for new crop cotton prices. December electronic futures started out Monday session slightly up before progressing to around 20 higher on the pre-opening.

Open outcry call was 20-30 higher, and prices quickly racketed to around the 64 cents level pushed by spec buying and bullish options. Trade selling at the high discouraged the market to test Friday's high at 6440. Market then fell into narrow trading range between 6330 to 6370 for the rest of the session.

Options were fairly active today with a combined volume of 33,600 contracts. One of the larger merchants was a buyer of 3,000 of the December 60/65 call spreads for 264 points against 23 delta futures at 6400. Another group were a seller of 1,500 December 66 calls for 240 points.

With open interest increased by some 4,000 contracts Friday, tomorrow's spec hedge report will likely see an increased net long position. We are also expecting a quiet trading session tomorrow due to Wednesday 4th of July holiday. Trade will likely pick up later this week.

Technically, a higher electronic trading from early this morning lead to a better open outcry session, though not much business was done over the weekend. The market traded within last Friday's trading range, and today's range was set soon after the session's open.

Momentum wise the RSI is 76.48, and the market looks due for a pull back even though the specs punched an exclamation point on the last trading day for the second quarter. The MACD moving average continues its upward trend, setting 9 day average at 6180 and 50 day average at 5660.

Click here to view graphical presentation:


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