South Asian gas demand strong enough for two pipeline schemes, says ADB Expert

22 Sep '05

4 min read

Future demand for natural gas in South Asia is projected to be strong enough to require gas to be piped from both Turkmenistan and Iran, an ADB expert said today.

Dan Millison, a senior ADB energy specialist, was responding to recently-released reserves information from Turkmenistan that shows a lower-than-expected gas deliverability for a proposed US$3.3 billion pipeline project to carry gas from Turkmenistan via Afghanistan to India and Pakistan.

ADB has been brokering the 1,700 km pipeline project since 2002, promoting it as a win-win example of regional cooperation - a pioneering effort to link gas-rich Central Asia with energy-deficient South Asia through Afghanistan. The project would bring clean fuel at competitive costs to India and Pakistan, much-needed transit fees to Afghanistan, and new markets for Turkmenistan.

Turkmenistan's Dauletabad gas field has gross reserves of 1.4 trillion cubic meters of gas, but production forecasts are lower than expected, causing analysts to doubt that it can meet the proposed target of piping 30 billion cubic meters (BCM) of gas a year to South Asia.

"The reserves information shows that Turkmenistan could supply enough gas for the first few years but then production is predicted to decline instead of increasing," says Mr. Millison. "They will need to find gas from other fields to meet pipeline design targets."

Meanwhile, a $7 billion scheme to pipe natural gas from offshore Iran to Pakistan and India is gaining momentum. This 2,700 km pipeline would cost more than double the Turkmen scheme but leaves out Afghanistan, where security concerns remain.

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