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Govt may fail to procure annual growth target

26
Mar '08
Soaring high oil prices and ineffective fiscal stimulus measures are inhibiting the economic development of Thailand which is expected to post a growth rate of 6 percent.

Experts believe that crude oil prices are likely to stay firm until next year as international demand will remain strong. Besides, oil supply from non-OPEC countries may also stay flat due to rising cost of refinery.

It is believed world-wide that in spite of global economic recession, oil prices will not decrease even in 2009. Reasons can be attributed to growing demand from China, India and Middle East which together represent 47 percent of the total consumption.

Moreover, US, Europe and Japan consumes about 14 percent of the global oil produce. Speaking at an economic conference, Dr Sethaput, Managing Director of SCB Securities stated that the 40 billon baht package to be disbursed by the Government, would largely encompass tax incentives for new and long term investments. This would increase savings and not consumption.

However, some other experts opine that it will be increasingly difficult for the country to maintain a 6 percent growth and the since the world economy is not in a very favorable state, overall development of Thailand may stand at 4.5 percent.

Besides, a continued slow down of US economy may also lead to a decline in the exports made by Thailand.

Starting from 2008, baht has seen an appreciation of 7 percent against dollar, 1.7 percent against euro and 7.2 against British pound. As a consequence, labor-intensive industries like textiles are likely to get affected by this trend.


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