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Cotton market dips slightly

03
Apr '08

Mostly quiet day as the grains were neutral to unchanged overnight and cotton dipped slightly. After the opening of options @ 8:15 EST, the market did move higher on some friendly trades as demand is getting stronger with K'08 near 70 cents.

The landed price idea by mills in the Far East is looking for cotton landed in the mid 70's and merchants are willing to sell at these levels as China, Indonesia and other markets look to cover shipments for April/May delivery.

We expect to see good demand at these levels but mills continue to cover their needs on a hand to mouth basis and we do not see at these levels any excessive buying forward. Volume was light with only 20,000 futures and 20,000 options as open interest rose slightly overnight to 271k.

Export sales tomorrow are expected to be good but might not be as high as the 400k from last week as we bounced higher last week off the lows. But considering the demand and inquiries this week, we expect export sales to remain strong as May'08 nears expiration.

Cert stocks continue to grow as we are now over 940k combining the awaiting review and this will certainly putting pressure on the May July spread to widen as the index funds begin rolling next week.

Very hard to imagine a stopper with cert stocks approaching 1 million bales and the risk of hedging cotton now after what happened to the commercials last month. We see the market trading sideways short term with scale up selling above 71 and scale down buying under 70 cents as the grains seem to have found a bottom nearby.

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