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K'08 / N'08 cotton spreads decent but not impressive

08
Apr '08
Cotton Monday session held strong without support from the Chicago grains market. There were also talks about business done over the weekend, which led to a strong open. The session traded lower after opening of the grains market, but steadily traded back up in synch with the gold and oil prices.

As per the Spec Hedge report as of Friday April 4, the specs have reduced their long positions by 2,700 contracts, and have increased their short positions by 2,310 contracts. The net spec position is 7.8% long, down 1.7% from the week before (please see charts on page 2 in attached PDF).

Stocks climb Monday on news that Washington Mutual, who has suffered big losses from sub-prime mortgages, might settle a corporate deal to receive a $5 billion investment from private equity firms.

As Bear Searns news is still in the headline, some market participants are already focusing on possibility of recovery from the credit crisis and the stagnant economy growth.

However, this is the first quarter earnings season, any bigger than expected losses from the banks will make the investors nervous.

Technically, we are trading in consolidation ahead of the USDA S&D report to be released this coming Wednesday. Last week's May prices at below or around 70 cents were attractive levels and have spurred some buying activities from mills.

Cotton offers have switched to N'08 and today is the first day of the rolling by the large index funds. K'08 /N'08 spreads were traded around 7,000 contracts, which was decent but not too impressive.

We could continue to trade sideways short term, but the growing cert stocks and neutral grains prices could play against the upside momentum seen.

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