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USDA to release cotton production estimates in May

14
Apr '08

The 2007/08 U.S. cotton crop was raised this month to 19.4 million bales (upland-18.55 million bales and ELS-850,000 bales), as indicated in the March 2008 Cotton Ginnings report. USDA will release final production estimates on May 9th.

With beginning stocks and imports unchanged in April, the season's cotton supply is now estimated at 28.9 million bales, 1.2 million (4 percent) above 2006/07. Slightly offsetting the supply gain was an increase in the estimate for 2007/08 mill use.

The U.S. cotton mill use estimate was raised 100,000 bales this month to 4.7 million, as recent textile activity has stabilized near this level.

Despite this, mill use is 5 percent below 2006/07 and remains the lowest in nearly a century. U.S. exports, on the other hand, were unchanged this month at 14.5 million bales as world trade projections were marginally lower.

Based on the current forecast, U.S. exports would be their second highest on record behind 2005/06's 17.5 million bales. The U.S. share of global trade for 2007/08 is estimated at 37 percent, equal to the average of the previous 2 seasons.

With U.S. production now exceeding demand in 2007/08, ending stocks are projected to rise slightly this season to 9.7 million bales, the largest since 1966/67. However, the stocks-to-use ratio is currently below that of 2006/07; this season's ratio is estimated at 50.5 percent, compared with nearly 53 percent in 2006/07.

United States Department of Agriculture

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