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Cotton market generally weak

15
Apr '08
As May contract options expired on Friday and May July rolling is well on the schedule, NYF gave us another lackluster session on Monday. Estimated volume is 35,000 contracts in futures and 6,800 contracts in options. 600 lots of the K'08 out of the money 74 cent puts were excised as the market carries some bearish opinions on the spot month price.

The cotton market was generally weak and choppy in light volume, but received support from the Chicago market. The dollar index made a nice come back as it bounced from the intraday low at more than 300 points lower to unchanged and higher. NYF settled at just 15 points below Friday's close on all front months, and almost unchanged on Z'08.

The commitments of traders supplementary report published by CFTC on Friday shows that as of Tuesday April 8th, for futures and options combined positions (chart on page 2), the commercials had reduced their long positions by 2,600 contracts from the week before to 121,800.

The non commercials increased their long positions slightly by 580 and the index traders increased their longs by 860 contracts. Commercials were holding 23.1% of the long positions and 54.8% of the short positions, while index traders were holding 22.2% and non commercials 10.1% of the longs. The market stays sideways trading as no sizable trades have come from the funds activities.

The market is lacking fireworks as we wait for the May contract to go into notice period. With the widening spreads between May and July contracts, which reached the level of 365 points, decent volume was yet again traded today. This could further lower the May open interest by a good number of contracts.

Even though the cert stocks level keeps building higher, which is putting pressure on the futures price, the current spread level is a good incentive for trades to carry their inventory to the next cover month, rather than delivering them against the board. As what we said before, watch outside markets for direction in cotton.

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