In the coming years, Chinese yields are only expected to climb 1 percent a year. As a result, China will need to buy cotton on the world market to meet its growing needs. So, what does this mean for U.S. farmers? The long-term trend for American producers is higher prices for those who do plant cotton, but there will likely be few price spikes.
"With the Chinese increasing demand and pressure on the supply side from the United States, you would have expected the cotton price would double during this period. But India has changed that outlook completely," Mohanty said.
In 2003, India was a net importer of cotton despite having the world's largest planting acreages. While the nation might have planted a lot of cotton, it had one of the world's lowest yields per acre. Four years later cotton yields have soared, thanks largely to the introduction of Bt cotton.
Bt crops are so named because they have been genetically altered to produceBt toxins, which kill some insects. The toxins are produced in nature by the widespread bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis, hence the abbreviation Bt.
"India's cotton yield, which had been flat for the previous 15 years, has increased by more than 90 percent in the past few years," Mohanty said. "That's a huge swing."
India became the world's second largest cotton producer and exporter this year. By the end of 2008, India is projected to export more than 6 million bales of cotton, making them the world's second largest exporter behind the United States.
In 10 years the researchers are projecting that number to rise to 13.5 million bales, which is close to current U.S. exports. Today, the United States exports about 15 million bales. But India still has much more room to increase yields. Even with massive cotton crops, India's yields are today 60 percent below the United States or about one bale per acre.
"India has much more upside," Mohanty said. "Only 70 percent of their production area is under BT (cotton) now." The Cotton Economics Research Institute provides cotton economic analysis for policymakers and others interested in agricultural economy. The group conducts economic research on all aspects of cotton production, marketing, trade and processing.
Texas, the nation's leading producer of cotton, harvested about 8.15 million bales of the fluffy fiber in 2007. Nationally, 19.4 million bales were harvested. Cotton is grown across the nation's Southern tier from Virginia and the Carolinas to California.
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