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Industry leaders gather to discuss volatility of cotton market

23
Apr '08

We had a bounce today on light volume with firmer prices in grains fueled by a CFTC hearing on commodity exchanges and possible changes to provide convergence in the physical markets.

The grain and cotton markets had several industry leaders present in Washington D.C. to discuss the unprecedented volatility that many of the markets experienced in the first quarter of 2008.

Oil managed to set a new record while the stock market and dollar fell lower as the markets continue to be nervous about the energy crisis and how long it will last. Volume was below average as we opened the day with under 12,000 contracts in K'08 as the spread continued to widen out to almost 400 points between K/N'08.

Inquiries increased last night as the Far East noticed the drop in futures prices, but we were unable to confirm any volume of new sales being done. We expect the market to move sideways short term as we move into delivery on the K'08 contract and cert stocks continue to grow.

Obviously the spread is wide enough to justify a taker and we will just have to see who is left after tomorrows close. Grains will continue to be supported by energy prices which will give the market some support short term, but we have not reached a level in N'08 to attract any volume of new business.

Cotton followed the grains higher today after several down days which were due for a correction. RSI at 43 does not give us any clear signal about which way the market will go, but specs seem to want to buy the market on dips which we may get after K'08 goes off the board. Short term the market feels like we could move sideways with more down side testing in the future.

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