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Cotton market looks bearish as demand remains meager

16
May '08
Cotton spent the overnight market in negative territory as we set a low at 69.55 and were looking to go lower when Chicago opened at 9:30. However, ICE had a power failure in Chicago which forced the system to shut down for the majority of the day.

We kept getting reports that they were only going to be delayed for 30 minutes to an hour but they only got things up and running just before the options close at 1:00 p.m. CST. Obviously the volume was on the light side, but even under the short period of time we traded, the 70 cent level held up very well in N'08.

Export sales were almost 50% less today than last week which only gave us 250k in sales and 300k in exports which is better than the average. The cotton prices continue to see a lack of commitment from the trade or the funds as we seem to be stuck in a vacuum between 70/72 cents.

Cotton market is still looking very fundamentally bearish as demand remains hand to mouth. The MACD has made a positive cross in the recent sessions, which is normally a buy signal. However, the movement suggested by the MACD cross needs support by decent trading volume coming from spec buying activities, which we have not been able to seen lately.

We first need to break that high set at 72.43 before we can pursue further upside targets heading towards significant resistance near 73/74 cents. Other commodities prices will continue to offer major influence on the cotton market in the short term as they are also struggling to go higher.

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