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Cotton shows a bit of strength on Aug 20

21
Aug '08
Cotton showed a bit of strength today after testing the lows early and closing higher on the day. We broke the support at 67.00 in Dec'08 and that triggered some sell stops which were quickly bought and the market bounced off the lows almost 200 points at the high of the day.

We are still trading on the intraday range set Monday with a top at 69.40. We would have to break that to get a rally going, and the technicals are starting to look positive again. Volume was just above 10,000 futures and the option volume was average with 7,000 contracts but open interest fell almost 3,000 contracts to a seasonal low of 214k.

Sales should be friendly tomorrow as good business has been seen trading in the sub 70 levels and we could be building a bottom here for the short term. Growing conditions remain positive in the U.S. and cert stocks are slowly falling. The commodity complex feels oversold and is due for a bounce, but the dollar and stock market continue to hold up.

Technicals continue to look negative as specs seem to have a lack of interest in cotton. Considering the index funds started reducing their positions and the non-commercials have been coming down steadily over the last several months, the trend remains bearish for now.

We could be putting in a mid year low and just a cool off from the recent record highs in energy, but we would need a fall in the dollar to spark a retest of the highs at the end of June and that may not happen until next year.

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