The 2008/09 U.S. cotton forecasts include lower supplies and offtake compared with last month, resulting in slightly higher ending stocks. Beginning stocks are reduced due to revisions in the 2007/08 balance sheet. Production for 2008/09 is raised marginally based on conditions as of September 1.
Domestic mill use is unchanged. Exports are reduced 500,000 bales to 14.5 million due to lower world import demand. Ending stocks are forecast at 4.9 million bales, up 300,000 bales from last month, and equivalent to 26 percent of total use. The forecast range for the marketing year average farm price of 57 to 69 cents per pound is lowered 3 cents on each end of the range, based on weaker current prices and demand prospects.
With global production unchanged, this month's 2008/09 world forecasts show lower consumption and trade, resulting in higher ending stocks. Production changes by country include higher production in India offset by lower production in Pakistan and Sudan.
Consumption is reduced in a number of countries, notably China, India, Pakistan, and Turkey, reflecting deteriorating world economic conditions and their impact on textile demand. Accordingly, world stocks are raised 1.3 million bales to 52.3 million.
For 2007/08, U.S. exports are lowered based on the final estimate from USDA's U.S. Export Sales report. Ending stocks are reduced based on a preliminary survey of 2007/08 end-of-season stocks by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The world estimates for 2007/08 include a number of revisions, including an increase of 1.2 million bales in China's production and ending stocks, based on revised estimates by sources in China.
Cotton Council International
20240830145952.gif)
.jpg?tr=w-120,h-60,c-at_max,cm-pad_resize,bg-ffffff "UBM China (Shanghai)")
-Ltd..jpg?tr=w-120,h-60,c-at_max,cm-pad_resize,bg-ffffff "Thermore (Far East) Ltd.")
