CRB Index trade in a paranoid fashion

29 Sep '08

3 min read

With the economic rescue package apparently a done deal, early reaction as of Sunday evening was disappointedly muted. Foreign stocks markets were flat to up slightly but really struggling. The dollar was higher with gold, silver and grains lower. To repeat, this was the reaction early Sunday evening.

Looking back at last week, cotton began with a strong rally that took prices a nickel above the reaction lows just two sessions prior. However, it was crude oil that stole the show with the expiring contract posting the largest one day gain in history. For the balance of the week market action in cotton was disappointing despite the great start.

It's been hard to know what to say about cotton considering the unpredictable behavior and traditional supply/demand fundamentals clearly taking a back seat.

The CRB Index of 19 commodities traded in a paranoid fashion. On Monday, that index traded 1,400 points above the previous Friday's settlement and 2,300 above the previous Fridays low. However, as the week drew to an end though, the CRB Index was barely above unchanged for the week.

At the heart of the situation obviously were the on-going economic worries including the uncertainty of the government bailout plan. One analyst said the markets seemed to be on pause at times. It was either that or losing value simply out of default.

All the markets including cotton became transfixed with the struggle between an ego-driven congress stuck between a re-election and a for the most part, an uninformed public. Traders on the various floors were preoccupied at times by television coverage of the presentations by the Fed chair and Treasury Secretary.

Export sales this past week were encouraging at 259,000 bales. in fact considering the economic uncertainties surrounding the market, the last three weeks have been surprisingly good at over ¾ million bales

Despite the encouraging strong start to the week, December cotton lost 214 points for the week and more than 400 points below Mondays highs. Gold gained about seven bucks but silver was the real performer gaining over 70 cents for the week.

Technically, last week was an inside week so sell stops in December cotton can be expected below last weeks 6015 low but significantly more below the previous weeks 5945 low and 5920 contract low. Closes below anyone of those three points by December cotton will reopen the door to 5700.

On the other hand, a close back above 6318 would allow the bulls to regain the upper hand by showing the stability necessary to spark fresh off take. A move above 6450 would be outright bullish technically but probably run into heavy commercial hedge selling.

Very early indications of market reaction to Washington's bi-partisan economic rescue package is bullish the dollar and bearish commodities. Time for the bulls to dig in.

Swiss Financial Services

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