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Cotton trade in a very narrow range

03
Oct '08
New sales for last week was posted at a disappointing 111,900 running bales, less than half from a week before. ICE cotton responded to the report by trading lower. Thursday was featured by strong dollar, weak commodities, heavy loss in equities, crude oil and gold.

U.S. dollar was trading above 80 and Euro/dollar exchange rate dropped to a record low since September last year. NY cotton rallied off its low into the positive area in the early afternoon session and held its own despite the weaker outside markets.

As expected, the bailout plan passed the Senate last night, with some revisions aiming to appeal more attractive to the House. The revision includes an additional $100 billion in tax breaks for businesses and the middle class. It also suggests raising the FDIC insurance limit from $100,000 to $250,000. The House is to revisit the plan today in an effort for a second vote tomorrow.

Meantime investors are staying on the sidelines, worried further by the dim economic forecast in the fourth quarter. The jobless claims number remains at a seven year high with further job cuts expected in the coming months. Stock market slid Thursday session to settle at 350 lower.

The U.S. economic picture is certainly not looking good with the bailout plan rejected by the House, neither is the global picture. The weak economic conditions are hitting Asia as well as Europe and there does not appear to be an end nearby. The fear of economic slowdown is worldwide and the commodity prices are affected accordingly.

We're trading in the 50's range and demand should come in at this level. However, the decreasing world demand proved to the opposite. It looks very bearish both fundamentally and technically and the MACD crossed downwards not long ago. Though it's not possible to pick a bottom yet, the deep the drop, the sharper the bounce will be.

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