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Cotton market opens higher

14
Oct '08
Cotton was up strong reaching almost 300 pts higher at one point during the morning after stocks opened much stronger. Overnight markets had been strong and commodities started to feel the support early, but certainly did not close on the highs.

There is still some uncertainty out there on how the global economy will perform long term, but after almost every equity market worldwide lost over 20% last week, we were due for a bounce and got a nice one of over 11% higher across the board. Volume was light under the holiday atmosphere with only 12,000 futures and 7,000 options as open interest continues to fall.

Demand has been very firm lately coming off the Ramadan break and the Labor day holiday in China. We are seeing most inquiries for nearby shipment, but some are for the first quarter next year. Specs keep liquidating as we are now 7% short compared to 4.7% last week as you will se on page 2 in attached PDF.

The momentum downward may have come to an end as we finally got some stability in the financial markets. The fundamentals are much stronger and with a few sideways trading sessions we could start to see a better technical picture as well.

The U.S. economic picture became a bit brighter as the stock markets found some support and this may lead to a commodity bounce. With RSI at 25, we have reached extremely oversold conditions and should be ready for at least a consolidation possibly in the 50-55 cent range for Z'08.

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