Cotton traded in a narrow to lower trading range while finding some support late in the day to close near unchanged. The Z'08 expires this week and the open interest is falling on a daily basis as we get closer to expiration. Cert stocks have come down steadily and demand remains hand to mouth on dip sin NY.
Harvest is in full swing and the Memphis Eastern regions are almost finished. West Texas, which has the biggest uncertainty about quality, still remains only 64% picked. Volume was good today with 16,000 futures and 5,000 options with still 16,000 Z'08 contracts to liquidate as of this morning.
The outside markets are the big question mark at the moment. We keep getting negative news on a daily basis from multiple sources, but the dollar remains under pressure and commodities are starting to build a bottom.
Oil is the key and it is showing good scale down support as well as grains and metals. There just seems to be an oversold attitude which is keeping commodities from crashing further. Will have to see how the dollar behaves overnight based on the bounce back in the stock market on the close. If Asia and Europe react positively then we could see some follow through in commodity prices.
Technically we are trying to build a bottom, but it has been a very difficult process. The stock market weakness and strong dollar are two major factors why we cannot hold a bottom. December contract has been settling just below the 9 day moving average and way below the 50 day moving average.
The down trend is still holding well with MACD making undecided movements, and the RSI is right around the over sold area. It may take until the first quarter to see some significant attempt to invest new money.
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