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Market trades lower

23
Dec '08
Very quiet weekend added to another slow day in the markets as we see low volume and a lack of business taking place. Open interest fell significantly on Friday by 3600 contracts and the spec short position fell to mostly unchanged at 1.6% today. There is very little physical demand as most mills are in holiday mode and waiting for next year to evaluate 1st and 2nd quarter demand. Stock market was lower most of the day but settled near unchanged as oil and metals are struggling.

This all leads to more Treasury buying and a lack of commitment in commodity or equities in the short term. Volume was very weak with 4,000 futures and 2,000 options as we wait for next year to see if we can uncover some of that new spec money to save the oversold commodity markets. However, the global recession symptoms will probably continue to weigh on the markets next year as China cut rates again today as they try to prop up the struggling economy.

Cert stocks keep falling but we are seeing some new crop cotton awaiting review as there is a push to get carry back on the board. Technically, cotton is starting to look more positive as the moving averages are getting close to crossing. However, the dollar has bounced off the lows and open interest keeps falling.

Cotton is starting to build a sideways trading channel 40/48 as we may be testing the top of the range going into year end. RSI is at 50 and the momentum is certainly looking more positive as we start to enter the more friendly seasonal demand period starting in late December.

Ecoms USA


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