Cotton opened the day firm based on better than expected export sales and shipments (page 2 in attached PDF), but struggled later in the day and closed lower. However, the stock market and other commodities did very well today and look like they have potential to go higher.
We are entering a friendly seasonal period for equity markets and this could translate into higher commodity prices as well. Open interest is rising and volume is picking up as well.
Looking back at the first quarter last year in the DJI, there is a very similar pattern compared to this year. There was a sell off starting in January which bottomed in early March and then moved higher into April and May.
Take a look on page 3 in attached PDF where we compare the DJI first quarters of 2008 and 2009 and if this holds up we are in store for more upside in the equity markets. This should translate into further upside in commodities and expect support under the market on dips to continue.
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