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Cotton stocks increasing outside of China (Mainland) in 2009/10

02
Jul '09
Outside of China (Mainland), cotton production is expected to increase by 3% to 16.0 million tons in 2009/10. Production is expected to increase in the three largest producing countries after China (Mainland): India, the United States and Pakistan. However, significant production declines are expected in Turkey, Brazil and the CFA zone. Cotton mill use outside of China (Mainland) is forecast 1% higher at 14.2 million tons in 2009/10.

Both cotton imports and exports from the World-less-China (Mainland) are expected to recover slightly in 2009/10, to 5.1 million tons and 6.5 million tons, respectively. Due to a faster increase in supply than in use, cotton stocks outside of China (Mainland) are forecast to continue to grow by 4% to a record of 9.5 million tons by the end of July 2010, accounting for two-thirds of cotton mill use in that region.

In China (Mainland), cotton production is expected to decline by 7% to 7.5 million tons in 2009/10. Cotton mill use is expected to increase by 3% to 9.3 million tons, slightly recovering from a sharp drop in 2008/09. Chinese imports are expected to increase only slightly to 1.5 million tons in 2009/10. Chinese stocks are expected to decline by 10%, to 3.4 million tons.

Based on a price forecast of 60 U.S. cents/lb for 2008/09 and an expected increase in the stocks-to-mill use ratio in the World-less-China (Mainland) in 2009/10, the ICAC Price Model 2007 forecasts a season-average Cotlook A Index of 56 U.S. cents/lb in 2009/10 (the 95% confidence interval is between 44 and 61 cents/lb). This would represent a 7% decline from the projected 2008/09 average.

World Cotton Supply and Distribution:

International Cotton Advisory Committee


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