World cotton mill use fell by 12% to 23.3 million tons in 2008/09, driven by the global economic and financial crisis that resulted in a sharp drop in consumption of textile products. The Secretariat's projection for 2009/10 has become more optimistic over the last twelve months, as the global economic outlook has improved. 2009/10 global cotton mill use is now forecast at 23.9 million tons, up 2.8% from last season. World cotton mill use is expected to continue to recover in 2010/11, growing by 2.5% to 24.5 million tons, driven by continued progress in global economic growth.
Higher prices paid for 2009/10 cotton, combined with the recent decline in prices of grains and oilseeds and relatively stable production costs, should encourage farmers to increase cotton plantings in 2010/11. World cotton area is forecast up by 5% to 32.0 million hectares. Assuming an average yield slightly higher than in 2009/10, world cotton production is expected to rebound to 24.1 million tons. A small decline in cotton ending stocks is expected in 2010/11.
World cotton trade is expected to increase slightly in 2010/11 to 7.4 million tons. Chinese imports are forecast to grow by 15% to 2.1 million tons, driven by increasing mill use. Exports from the United States are projected up by 10% to 2.6 million tons next season, driven by increased production, whereas Indian exports could remain stable. For other major exporters, only small changes in shipments are expected at this stage.
International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC)
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