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Cotton production remains concentrated with rebound in 2010
14 Jul '10
6 min read
Global cotton area in 2010 is forecast at 32.7 million hectares, an 8-percent change from a year earlier. Most of the rebound comes from the United States, where cotton harvested area in 2010/11 is projected to increase 38 percent to 4.2 million hectares from the previous year. World yield is forecast at 774 kg/ha compared with 736 kg/ha in 2009/10.
World Cotton Trade to Continue Rebound in 2010/11
Global cotton trade in 2010/11 is forecast at 37.0 million bales, up 5 percent from the previous year, as major cotton importers increase purchases. The United States, the world's leading cotton exporter, is projected to export 14.3 million bales in 2010, a 17-percent increase from a year earlier as global demand for the fiber continues to strengthen. Australia and Brazil are forecast are forecast to export 1.85 million bales and 2.2 million bales, up 1 percent and 10 percent, respectively, from a year ago. The African Franc Zone is projected to export nearly 2.5 million bales in 2010/11, a 12-percent increase from the previous year and the highest in more than 2 years. India's 2010/11 cotton exports are forecast to decline 8 percent to 5.9 million bales, as lower beginning stocks and higher domestic use limit the available supplies for export.
China is projected to import 11.7 million bales, an increase of 10 percent from the previous year. Pakistan's imports are forecast to increase 53 percent from the previous year, while Bangladesh is projected to import a record 4.3 million bales in 2010/11, up 6 percent from a year earlier. Turkey is the only major importer where cotton imports are projected to decline, with 2010/11 imports forecast at 3.3 million bales, down 20 percent from the preceding year.
Global Cotton Consumption Forecast to Rise Further in 2010/11
Global cotton consumption in 2010/11 is forecast at 119.7 million bales, up almost 3 percent from the preceding year. Improved global economic growth prospects are expected to expand mill use by major consumers such as China, India, and Brazil. The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) July 2010 publication of the World Economic Outlook puts global economic growth at 4.6 percent and 4.3 percent in 2010 and 2011, respectively, compared with the -0.6 percent growth in 2009.
The IMF estimates 2010 economic growth in China, India, and Brazil at 10.5 percent, 9.4 percent, and 4.5 percent, respectively, each higher than the previous year. In response to the expected economic gains, 2010/11 mill use in China and India is forecast at 49.0 million bales and 20.4 million bales, up 3 percent and 4 percent, respectively, from a year ago. Brazil is forecast to increase 2010/11 mill use 5 percent from a year ago to 4.6 million bales. Pakistan's 2010/11 cotton consumption is forecast at 11.6 million bales, up 1 percent from the previous year, while Turkey's is expected to increase 2 percent to 5.7 million bales from a year earlier. Mill use in the United States is not expected to change from the previous year.
World Cotton Trade to Continue Rebound in 2010/11
Global cotton trade in 2010/11 is forecast at 37.0 million bales, up 5 percent from the previous year, as major cotton importers increase purchases. The United States, the world's leading cotton exporter, is projected to export 14.3 million bales in 2010, a 17-percent increase from a year earlier as global demand for the fiber continues to strengthen. Australia and Brazil are forecast are forecast to export 1.85 million bales and 2.2 million bales, up 1 percent and 10 percent, respectively, from a year ago. The African Franc Zone is projected to export nearly 2.5 million bales in 2010/11, a 12-percent increase from the previous year and the highest in more than 2 years. India's 2010/11 cotton exports are forecast to decline 8 percent to 5.9 million bales, as lower beginning stocks and higher domestic use limit the available supplies for export.
China is projected to import 11.7 million bales, an increase of 10 percent from the previous year. Pakistan's imports are forecast to increase 53 percent from the previous year, while Bangladesh is projected to import a record 4.3 million bales in 2010/11, up 6 percent from a year earlier. Turkey is the only major importer where cotton imports are projected to decline, with 2010/11 imports forecast at 3.3 million bales, down 20 percent from the preceding year.
Global Cotton Consumption Forecast to Rise Further in 2010/11
Global cotton consumption in 2010/11 is forecast at 119.7 million bales, up almost 3 percent from the preceding year. Improved global economic growth prospects are expected to expand mill use by major consumers such as China, India, and Brazil. The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) July 2010 publication of the World Economic Outlook puts global economic growth at 4.6 percent and 4.3 percent in 2010 and 2011, respectively, compared with the -0.6 percent growth in 2009.
The IMF estimates 2010 economic growth in China, India, and Brazil at 10.5 percent, 9.4 percent, and 4.5 percent, respectively, each higher than the previous year. In response to the expected economic gains, 2010/11 mill use in China and India is forecast at 49.0 million bales and 20.4 million bales, up 3 percent and 4 percent, respectively, from a year ago. Brazil is forecast to increase 2010/11 mill use 5 percent from a year ago to 4.6 million bales. Pakistan's 2010/11 cotton consumption is forecast at 11.6 million bales, up 1 percent from the previous year, while Turkey's is expected to increase 2 percent to 5.7 million bales from a year earlier. Mill use in the United States is not expected to change from the previous year.
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
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