The Conference Board euro area LEI drops 0.4% in March; CEI down 0.2%

As a result, the LEI contracted by 4.2 per cent over the six-month period from September 2023 to March 2024, a smaller rate of decline than over the six-month period from March to September 2023.

The US think tank’s coincident economic index (CEI) for the euro area increased by 0.2 per cent in March to 108.3 after no change in February.

The CEI grew by 0.3 per cent over the six-month period from September 2023 to March 2024 after contracting by 0.2 per cent over the previous six-month period, a release from the think tank said.

The LEI provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The CEI provides an indication of the current state of the economy.

“A large negative contribution from the yield spread, combined with weaker consumer expectations, manufacturing new orders and volume of order books drove the Index down. With the Index six-month growth rate still below its long-term trend and given the widespread weakness among its components, the LEI continues to signal the risk of a forthcoming recession in the euro area, said Ian Hu, economic research associate at the think tank.

“Against this background of persisting headwinds to economic activity, the Conference Board currently projects a modest 0.6 per cent real annual GDP [gross domestic product] growth in 2024,” he added.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)