The Conference Board LEI for Germany unchanged in Feb at 88.5

The LEI for Germany contracted by 3.6 per cent between August 2023 and February 2024, an accelerated pace of decline from the 2-per cent contraction over the previous six-month period.

The US think tank’s coincident economic index (CEI) for the country also remained unchanged in February at 103.9 after a 0.1-per cent increase in January.

Over the six-month period between August 2023 and February 2024, the CEI for Germany fell by 0.3 per cent, continuing the 0.2-per cent decline over the previous six-month period.

The LEI provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term, whereas the CEI offers an indication of the current state of the economy.

“The LEI for Germany was unchanged in February, pausing at the lowest level since March 2010 reached last month,” said Allen Li, associate economist at the think tank.

“February’s flat reading was the result of positive contributions from consumer confidence, stock prices, and change in inventories being balanced by negative contributions from the yield spread and new residential construction orders,” he said in a release from the think tank.

“LEI growth on a six-month basis remains negative and below its long-term trend, thus signalling recession risks in the near term. The Conference Board currently expects Germany’s real GDP to be flat in Q1 ’24 and recover only modestly in subsequent quarters,” he added.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)