Weighed down by the effects of the war in Ukraine, stubbornly high inflation, tighter monetary policy and financial market uncertainty, the volume of world merchandise trade is expected to grow by 1.7 per cent this year, following 2.7 per cent growth in 2022, a smaller-than-expected increase that was pulled down by a sharp slump in the fourth quarter.

WTO's trade projections, set out in the new ‘Global Trade Outlook and Statistics’ report, estimate real global GDP growth at market exchange rates of 2.4 per cent for 2023.

Projections for both trade and output growth are below the averages for the past 12 years of 2.6 per cent and 2.7 per cent respectively.

The 2.7 per cent increase in world trade volume in 2022 was weaker than the WTO's October forecast of 3.5 per cent, as a sharper-than-expected quarter-on-quarter decline in the fourth quarter dragged down growth for the year, WTO said in a release.

Several factors contributed to that slump, including elevated global commodity prices, monetary policy tightening in response to inflation, and outbreaks of COVID-19 that disrupted production and trade in China.

Notably, trade growth last year turned out to be in line with the 2.4 per cent to 3 per cent baseline scenario in WTO's March 2022 initial report on the war in Ukraine, and well above its more pessimistic scenario in which trade would have grown just 0.5 per cent as countries started to split into competing economic blocs.

In the event, international markets remained broadly open. A follow-up study WTO released last month documented how vulnerable economies were able to compensate for essential food supplies cut off by the war by finding alternative products and suppliers.

The 1.7 per cent forecast for trade growth in 2023, meanwhile, is up from the previous estimate of 1 per cent from last October. A key factor here is the relaxation of COVID-19 pandemic controls in China, which is expected to unleash pent-up consumer demand in the country, in turn boosting international trade.

Looking ahead to 2024, trade growth should rebound to 3.2 per cent, as GDP picks up to 2.6 per cent, but this estimate is more uncertain than usual due to the presence of substantial downside risks, including geopolitical tensions, food supply shocks, and the possibility of unforeseen fallout from monetary tightening, WTO added.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)