Vietnam's trade may be hit as US, EU forecast to see recession: MoIT

High inflation in export markets has reduced the demand for consumer goods like textiles, footwear and furniture.

BIDV Securities Joint Stock Company (BSC) offers two scenarios based on the possibility of a US recession. In the first, if the United States sees a recession this year, Vietnam could raise exports by 13.1 per cent and imports by 12.6 per cent.

In the second, if the United States faces a recession in 2023, Vietnam could increase exports by 18 per cent and imports by 17.3 per cent.

Experts at Rong Viet Securities (VDSC) forecast that industrial production and export growth will slow down in the fourth quarter in Vietnam, but the level of decline will be moderate, according to a report in a Vietnamese media outlet.

China maintaining strict measures to prevent and control the COVID-19 pandemic also affects export activities and the supply of raw materials, Trang said.

However, bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements may help the country limit export-related risks.

In the first nine months this year, the country’s export value increased by 17.2 per cent to $282 billion. As a result, the nation gained a trade surplus of over $6.8 billion.

However, in September, export growth slowed and the growth rate decreased by 14 per cent compared to the previous month, mainly in electronics, computers and phones. Therefore, the growth rate in the third quarter also decreased against the previous quarter.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)