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USDA WASDE cotton forecast & caveats of 2007/08
03 Jul '07
2 min read
Demand Assumptions: Another big assumption underlying the 2007/08 outlook is the U.S. having 17.5 million bales of exports in 2007/08. The arguments in favor of USDA's view are that 17 to 18 million bales lies within the upward pointing five year trend projection of U.S. exports, and also that the projected foreign stocks-to-use ratio will likely continue below 40%, continuing a three year trend of declining foreign stocks.
World Forecast: In terms of the World new crop supply/demand picture, the USDA June WASDE report forecasted a reduction in world ending stocks-to-use down to 40%. This suggested that the A-Index could rise more than during 2007/08. The revision of the U.S. planted acreage estimate would further reduce the U.S. and world supply prospects, which lowers world ending stocks-to-use down to 39%.
World Forecast: In terms of the World new crop supply/demand picture, the USDA June WASDE report forecasted a reduction in world ending stocks-to-use down to 40%. This suggested that the A-Index could rise more than during 2007/08. The revision of the U.S. planted acreage estimate would further reduce the U.S. and world supply prospects, which lowers world ending stocks-to-use down to 39%.
Texas A&M University
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