The continued widespread improvement in the leading index during the first half of this year suggests that economic growth should continue, and perhaps even pick up somewhat, in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS: Six of the seven components in the leading index increased in June. The positive contributors to the leading index— in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest— are new orders in investment goods industries, stock prices, new residential construction orders, inventory change series, yield spread, and gross enterprises and properties income. The negative contributor was consumer confidence.
With the 0.6 percent increase in June, the leading index now stands at 100.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in May and increased 0.8 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the leading index increased 3.1 percent, with six of the eight components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 85.7 percent).