Warm conditions to affect cotton yield potential - WASDE

04 Sep '07

3 min read

Rainfall and Soil Moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (based on data through early August 28) still shows severe to exceptional drought across Tennessee, Alabama, and western Georgia, with lesser stages of drought spreading to the north and west. In addition, the dryness in the northwestern Texas Panhandle is beginning to be reflected on the Drought Monitor map. The seven day cumulative rainfall map (as of September 2) shows significant rainfall coverage along the Gulf and lower Atlantic coasts.

Crop Condition. Reported U.S. crop condition ratings for the week ending August 26 continued a slight downtrend, showing the effects of hot, dry conditions. The ultimate effect on yield remains uncertain, as several years (2004 and 2005) with higher ratings trends, and one (2006) with lower ratings trends, all resulted in U.S. average yields exceeding 800 lbs/acre.

So the current USDA forecast of a 783 lb/acre average yield in 2007 seems reasonable enough, barring some late season catastrophe (e.g., a hurricane, or October freeze in the Texas High Plains).

Regional reports from West Texas such as those summarized by Jay Yates' blog highlight improved crop conditions in the southeastern portions of the Texas High Plains that have received rain.

Demand Caveats. The main demand caveat is the pace of U.S. export shipments. The USDA weekly export report for the week ending August 23 showed that sales for U.S. upland and pima combined were 476,300 total running bales. (Note: a 480 lb. "statistical bale" is about 97.5% of a physical "running bale").

Total export shipments of upland and pima, which lags net sales, were 322,900 running bales which translates to a pace which exceeds the 324,000 statistical bales needed to reach 16.7 million statistical bales by July 31, 2008.

Texas A&M University

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