Real GDP grows at 2.2% in H1

19 Oct '07

4 min read

The negative contributors – beginning with the larger negative contributor – were building permits and interest rate spread. Average weekly manufacturing hours held steady in September.

The leading index now stands at 137.9 (1996=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.8 percent in August and increased 0.7 percent in July.

During the six-month span through September, the leading index was unchanged, with six out of ten components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 60 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS All four indicators that make up the coincident index increased in September. The positive contributors to the index – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were employees on nonagricultural payrolls, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production.

The coincident index now stands at 125 (1996=100). This index increased 0.1 percent in August and increased 0.3 percent in July. During the six-month period through September, the coincident index increased 1.0 percent.

LAGGING INDICATORS The lagging index stands at 129.9 (1996=100) in September, with four of the seven components advancing.

The positive contributors to the index – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were commercial and industrial loans outstanding, average duration of unemployment (inverted), change in CPI for services, and ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income.

The negative contributors – beginning with the larger negative contributor – were average prime rate charged by banks and change in labor cost per unit of output.

The ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales held steady in September. Based on revised data, the lagging index increased 0.3 percent in August and increased 0.1 percent in July.

The Conference Board

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