2022 H1 sees weaker merchandise trade growth, to slow further in H2

06 Dec '22

2 min read

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Weaker world merchandise trade growth was witnessed in the first half of 2022 due to the war in Ukraine, high inflation and lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) said recently in a statistical report. Such growth fell to 4.4 per cent year on year (YoY) in the second quarter of 2022, with slower growth expected in the second half of the year.

Weaker growth is also expected in 2023 as the global economy slows.

World merchandise trade volume and real gross domestic product (GDP) rebounded strongly in 2021 after slumping in 2020 following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Merchandise trade volume rose by 9.7 per cent in 2021 while GDP at market exchange rates increased by 5.9 per cent.

Both merchandise and commercial services trade grew at double-digit rates in the first half this year when measured in nominal US dollar terms.

Merchandise exports were up by 17 per cent YoY in value terms in the second quarter this year.

Merchandise trade made a strong recovery in 2021, as demand for imported goods continued to rebound from the pandemic-induced slump of 2020. However, disruptions to supply chains increasingly weighed on growth over the course of the year.

Growth in merchandise trade in 2021 was accompanied by a 5.8 per cent increase in world GDP at market exchange rates, well above the 3 per cent average rate for 2010-19. World trade grew around 1.7 times faster than world GDP in 2021.

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