Import volume expected to peak at US ports in Aug 2023: Report

Ports have not yet reported June numbers, but 1.86 million TEUs have been projected for the month, down 17.5 per cent YoY. That would bring the first half of 2023 to 10.6 million TEUs, down 22 per cent from the first half of 2022, according to the Global Port Tracker compiled by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

July is forecast at 1.94 million TEUs, down 11 per cent YoY, and August is forecast at 2.03 million TEUs, down 10.1 per cent YoY but the first month since last October to reach 2 million TEUs. September is forecast at 1.96 million TEUs, down 3.4 per cent; October at 1.97 million TEUs, down 1.8 per cent; and November at 1.88 million TEUs, up 5.9 per cent for the first YoY increase since June 2022.

Global Port Tracker has not yet forecast the full year, but the third quarter is expected to total 5.9 million TEUs, down 8.3 per cent from last year, and the first nine months of the year should total 16.5 million TEUs, down 17.6 per cent YoY. Imports for all of 2022 totalled 25.5 million TEUs, down 1.2 per cent from the annual record of 25.8 million TEUs set in 2021.

NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said: “We were relieved that labour and management at West Coast ports reached a tentative agreement last month but that doesn’t mean supply chain disruptions are over. The port strike affecting Vancouver and Prince Rupert shouldn’t have a major impact here but could affect some US retailers whose merchandise comes in through Canada and could have a potential ripple effect at other ports.

“Meanwhile, the ability to move goods from US ports to stores could be impacted if UPS and the Teamsters don’t resolve their differences before their contract expires at the end of the month. We urge all parties in both negotiations to get back to the table and continue efforts to reach a final deal without engaging in disruptive activity. Seamless supply chains are critical for retailers as we head into the peak shipping season for the winter holidays.”

Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett noted that first-quarter gross domestic product growth was revised upward to 2 per cent, consumer demand is stable, and consumers have continued to spend while retailers and wholesalers have reduced their inventories.

“These numbers together point toward another quarter of economic growth, which should confirm that the prospect of a recession is looking less likely,” added Hackett.

Canada’s Vancouver and Prince Rupert aren’t included in those totals and not all of their cargo comes to the US, but the two ports handled over 185,000 TEUs in May. That accounted for approximately 9 per cent of combined US-Canadian container imports at ports covered by the full Global Port Tracker report.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (NB)