UK consumer confidence highest in July since April 2010

Measures for personal financial situation over the last 12 months and next 12 months, and the general economic situation of the country over the last 12 months and next 12 months have all seen increases this month. The major purchase index is the only measure that decreased this month.

Nick Moon, Managing Director of Social Research at GfK, comments, “There is now no doubt that consumer confidence has recovered strongly from the unparalleled trough of the last five years. At -16, the overall Index is now at its highest point since April 2010. In the last three months the Index has risen by 11 points, one of the best single quarter improvements since the Index started climbing up from its all-time low of -39 in July 2008 after the credit crunch.

"It is also significant that since December 12 there has been only one month where the Index fell, and even that was a minor one point drop. With a series like the Index it is the longer-term changes that mean far more than one single month’s figures, and the current trend is definitely upwards. This can be seen clearly from the 12-month moving average which started the year at -29, rose to -28 by February, to -27 by May, -26 in June and it is now at -25. Given that the 12-month moving average was either -29 or -30 for the whole of 2012 this is a very dramatic change.

"Other than the element of the index about whether now is a good time for major purchases, which fell by a trivial one point, all the individual elements of the Index rose by five or seven points.”

UK Consumer Confidence Measures – July 2013

The overall index score has increased by five points this month to -16. Four of the five measures saw increases this month, and the remaining measure decreased. The annual moving average rises one point to -25.

Personal Financial Situation

The Index measuring changes in personal finances during the last 12 months has increased by five points this month to -16; this is seven points higher than July 2012.

The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months has increased seven points this month to 0; this is eight points higher than this time last year.

General Economic Situation

The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months has increased seven points to -35; this is 24 points higher than July 2012.

An expectation for the general economic situation over the next 12 months has increased seven points this month to -9; this is 21 points higher than this time last year.

Climate for Major Purchases

The major purchases measure has decreased one point this month to -21; this is five points higher than this time last year.

Savings Index

The ‘now is a good time to save’ Index has increased six points this month to -14, which is one point higher than July 2012.

GfK