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Leading Index decline for fourth straight month in January
Feb '08
The Conference Board reports that the Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators declined 0.1 percent in January, following a 0.1 percent decline in December, and a 0.4 percent decline in November.

Says Ken Goldstein, Labor Economist at The Conference Board: “The Leading Index declined for the fourth straight month. But the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which measures where the economy is at present, remains slow but steady."

"The CEI is a better indicator than GDP of where we are right now, and since the CEI was still showing a positive change in January, then the economy was not in recession. The change in the Leading Index, including the duration, intensity, and dispersion across markets, suggests weak growth going forward.”

The Conference Board reports that the Coincident Index increased 0.1 percent in January and December, following no change in November. The Lagging Index was unchanged in January, following a 0.2 percent increase in December, and a 0.3 percent increase in November.

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The Conference Board

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