Netting out the effects of these measures, the corresponding average monthly rates of increase in the Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) for the 3-month period from January to March 2008 were 0.7%, 0.8%, 0.7% and 0.6% respectively and for the 3-month period from December 2007 to February 2008 were 0.9%, 1.0%, 0.9% and 0.8% respectively.
Year-on-year increases in prices were recorded for miscellaneous goods (5.5% in the Composite CPI and 6.1% in the CPI(A)); clothing and footwear (3.0% in the Composite CPI and 4.5% in the CPI(A)) and transport (2.0% in the Composite CPI and 0.1% in the CPI(A)).
On the other hand, year-on-year declines in prices were recorded in March 2008 for durable goods (-3.5% in the Composite CPI and -4.2% in the CPI(A)).
As for miscellaneous services, the Composite CPI rose by 1.4% over a year earlier but the CPI(A) fell by 0.4%. Affected by the difference in expenditure patterns, implementation of the Pre-primary Education Voucher Scheme had smaller impact on the Composite CPI than on CPI(A), and the increase in charges for package tours had larger impact on the Composite CPI than on CPI(A), thus leading to different movements in the two CPIs.
In the first quarter of 2008, the Composite CPI rose by 4.6% over a year earlier, while the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 5.4%, 4.3% and 3.9% respectively. Netting out the effect of various one-off measures, the Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B), and CPI(C) rose by 4.9%, 4.9%, 5.0% and 4.8% respectively in the first quarter of 2008 over a year earlier.
For the 12 months ended March 2008, the Composite CPI was on average 2.7% higher than in the preceding 12-month period. The respective increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 2.5%, 2.7% and 2.9%. The corresponding increases after netting out the effect of various one-off measures were 3.4%, 3.1%, 3.4% and 3.6% respectively.
Commentary:
A Government spokesman said that the decline in headline consumer price inflation from 6.3% in February to 4.2% in March was mainly due to the cessation of the lower base effect that pushed up the February figure. Also, the relief measure of rates concession continued to help lower the inflation rate. Netting out all the relevant one-off effects, underlying consumer price inflation edged up to 5.3% in March from 5.1% in February.
Meanwhile, developments in the exchange rates of the US dollar and renminbi as well as local wages and rentals also need to be watched closely. Nevertheless, the various relief measures announced in the 2008-09 Budget and the sustained labour productivity growth should help provide some cushioning effect to inflation.
Census and Statistics Department
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