Fashion trend forecasting is both an art and a science
ICH was conceptualised to address the need gap for consumer centric brand ideas in fashion & lifestyle retail. As a ‘creative strategy firm’ rooted in product, the organisation focuses on strategic brand development from ideation to enabling execution. In an exclusive conversation with Fibre2Fashion, Founders Kanika Vohra and Anuradha Chandrashekar talk about ICH NEXT, the first Indian wear fashion forecaster.
In the ever-evolving landscape of the fashion industry, what macroeconomic factors do you believe have the most significant impact on shaping trends and consumer preferences?
Fashion trends and consumer preferences are the outcomes of several factors that influence us consciously as well as sub-consciously. From macroeconomic and geopolitical to societal and sentimental, there is an array of influences that play the most significant role in shaping trends and consumer preferences. The key here is a thorough and extensive research, that considers diverse elements of influence, such as consumer sentiment, media, movies & content, F&B trends, political impact and government initiatives, leading fashion retails, market reports, blogs, social media, labels, global runways, Bollywood as well as regional celebs etc. There is no substitute for an extensive consumer and industry-centric research that incorporates most micro and macro factors influencing one’s lifestyle.
As sustainability becomes increasingly important in various industries, how do you see the fashion industry adapting to and driving sustainable practices, both in production and consumer behaviour?
With consumers and governments pressuring brands to be more conscious of its practices and its environmental impact, sustainability has become the most important topic of consideration with global brands. Fashion broadways and fashion weeks often showcase new lines that are high on sustainability. Slow fashion, product transparency and thrifting are on the rise as consumers become more aware and conscious of product consumption and sustainable living. While they are looking for brands with zero carbon footing, they are also looking at stretching the product lifeline in fashion. Such clothes in the wardrobe can be repeated, exchanged or resold over the years and are viewed as an investment. Manufacturing plays a key role to promote this philosophy as the primary service provider and decision maker of a product’s make. A 360° view is being attempted to assess sustainability across practices in human development, safety, material choices, waste management and so on. The first step towards adoption by retailers has been on packaging, fabric choices and building alliances with only accredited factories. While there is much conversation noted, we have barely scratched the surface.
What goes behind a product becoming a bestseller on platforms like Myntra, AJIO etc? Please give perspective of the apparel brand as well as e-commerce retailer.
The success of a product is a culmination of four key pillars – 1) deep research of ‘what to make’ and ‘when to sell’; 2) quality of the make ensuring ‘consumer delight’; 3) ‘priced right’ for the target audience; and optimum ‘investment in driving visibility’ of the product. Any of these four pillars being compromised creates a domino effect for the rest. Given that the fashion industry necessitates a lengthy lead time in production (ranging from 4-8 months for most brands/retailers), the necessity of a consumer-centric, unified research that combines past data analytics and future trend insights is imperative, with a keen eye to bet behind the right products. The lack of the same is what led to the classical ‘spray and pray method’ and reaffirmed the popular industry statistic of Pareto’s’ 80:20 principle (where 80 per cent of topline is fed by 20 per cent of the selection). ICH NEXT was created to solve for this gap, providing focused seasonal trends, made available to brands well in advance or ahead of time, so that they have adequate chance to manufacture in accordance with predicted demand and align their operations and supply chains accordingly. Tata Cliq, Pantaloons, Myntra, and Amazon India have benefited from ICH NEXT, India’s first Indian Wear Fashion Forecaster for the domestic retail sector. Even before the New Year, ICH NEXT is set to unveil its Festive-Winter ’24/25 report, a thorough trend research that the Indian retail and design community can subscribe to for a foresight into what they need to prepare for.
How does fashion forecasting actually takes place. What key factors and indicators do you consider during this process?
The future trend study includes an in-depth examination of the market and consumers, taking a 360-degree approach, encompassing all aforementioned elements of influence like movies & content, consumer sentiments, celebrities, global runway, travel trends etc. A detailed study as such empowers fashion businesses to stay on trend and get it right every time. At ICH NEXT for example, to ensure that all parts and factors are included in the analysis, more than 700 curated research sources are searched thoroughly by a tech tool, and then human zeitgeist is applied. While meticulous and in-depth research is important in charting trends, we also ensure that no message is diluted or lost in translation. Instead of abandoning the brands in the middle of product development, we incorporate and illustrate the findings using original art and design.
Can you give an example of when your forecasting insights significantly influenced the success of a particular fashion item or collection on a major online platform?
ICH NEXT issues reports pertaining to specific seasons, for instance Spring/ Summer 2024 or our upcoming Festive/Winter 2024. From multi-macro themes to specific directives on expected trends in colour palettes, fabric, patterns, embellishments are provided as well as illustrated with photographs and original design sketches.
A manifestation of the instrumental role that ICH Creative Consulting plays is also our partnerships with the likes of Myntra, a major e-commerce entity. As part of the engagement, ICH NEXT provides macro and micro trend directives customised for the top sellers of women’s Indian wear in Myntra; to design, manufacture and curate against each month for optimum on-trend fashion output. Piloted in the summer season of 2023, the partnership with ICH Creative enabled a circular approach of on-trend manufacturing and curation in Indian wear. The programme brought research, curation and the creation community together, to actively predict incoming trends and offer the consumer fresh, relevant fashion on time. What’s more, the programme saw unprecedented success with a sale metric 6.5x revenue per style than normal!
Given the vast number of apparel brands in the country, why do only a select few manage to establish a strong brand recall value? What elements contribute to the success of a brand in terms of creating a lasting impression on consumers?
Fashion, anywhere in the world, is fundamentally a synthesis of conscious and unconscious environmental and lifestyle influences. Fashion trend forecasting is thus both an art and a science. We continually watch and study the buzz in celeb lifestyle, designer community, content and media, travel, politics, F&B, home interiors, and global projects to arrive at these possible fashion futures. Because many of these factors are local, it is critical that the research be localised as well. Brands that are able to understand all of these factors and then cater to their consumers are always successful, while others may still work on hit and miss method.
What role does consumer feedback play in the fashion forecasting process, and how do you incorporate this feedback to ensure that the predicted trends align with actual market demands?
Consumer feedback forms the crux of any research that will lead to style predictions for them. When the fashion forecast is done keeping in mind the consumer preferences and sentiments, the product output is consumer relevant. This is in sharp contrast to the ‘spray and pray’ method of new introductions, which lacks extensive study. A good product at the right time in the right quantity can sustain corporate health while also being better for the environment by not generating surplus non-relevant stocks.
Can you provide an overview of ICH Creative’s approach to fashion forecasting, and how it sets your company apart in the industry?
As suggested, ICH NEXT trend forecast is powered by an in-house technology tool that examines more than 700 curated sources in order to provide light on each aspect of consumer impact. This is a 360-degree study that is tracked throughout the year, then evaluated and pinned onto a fashion curve to determine significant trends for the next year. Qualitative research, in addition to secondary data reading, aids in gaining a better grasp of the deeper, underlying attitudes that impact consumer choices. It delivers recommendation on colour combinations, motif and pattern trends, surface ornamentation cues and textiles, silhouette trends, and new detailing based on this study.
What strategies do you employ to ensure that your forecasting insights align with the dynamic nature of the fashion industry, especially in the online retail landscape?
Our research is translated into real recommendations in the form of reports on colour palette trends, pattern and motif trends, fabric and surface decoration cues, new details, and silhouette trends. Furthermore, the service offers a big, practical asset library of themes and specs, allowing brands/designers to instantly implement seasonal developments. We release (annually) 16 reports in Indian womenswear and 14 in menswear, which are accessible digitally via an online subscription, assuring a continual influx of researched trend inputs. We also work with clients on unique advising of future trends that is tailored to the brand’s positioning and target audience.
How do you approach the integration of cultural and regional influences in fashion forecasting, especially considering the diverse market in India?
Integrating cultural and regional influences in fashion forecasting in India involves recognising the market’s diversity and the consolidation trend due to digitalisation and e-commerce growth. Fashion forecasting now considers consumers’ exposure to national and global influences, amplified by internet access. At ICH, we focus on a deeper psychographic analysis beyond traditional demographics like age or region. This approach looks at lifestyle choices, upbringing, and goals, which often share global commonalities. This comprehensive perspective aids in understanding the evolving consumer landscape in India’s diverse yet increasingly unified market.
How do you balance the creative aspects of fashion forecasting with the practical considerations of market trends and consumer preferences?
We follow a two-fold 360° methodology, wherein we pay attention to the consumer and customer. We not only hear them but listen carefully. We always insist on conducting immersive consumer ethnographies, no matter how small the sample size, to truly understand the voice of the consumer – their ambitions, fears, what brings them joy, their environment, their relationships with the people who have influence in their lives, and, of course, their fashion preferences through physical wardrobe audits! Simultaneously, we are constantly tracking market shifts in the retail industry to understand consumer preferences and industry capabilities. The fashion forecast is designed to be visually comprehensive and easy to consume, democratising the understanding of trends and its adoption across business types. From multi-macro themes to specific visual directives on expected trends in new colour palettes, fabric, patterns, and embellishments are provided as well as illustrated with photographs and original design sketches, thus making the forecast, 1) consumer/ customer relevant, 2) creatively inspiring and yet 3) market adoptable.
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