Mexico is unchanged from 2011 as the country is expected to import less U.S. cotton but more pork and corn, in part due to higher unit values for these products. The forecast for Brazil is down $300 million from the record 2011 forecast. The surge in exports to Brazil seen over the past 8 months is almost entirely due to greater cotton exports. However, shipments of U.S. cotton are expected to be down in 2012 due to a larger Brazilian crop.
Revised Outlook for 2011
The forecast for agricultural exports is unchanged from the May forecast at $137 billion. Exports to Asia are forecast down $500 million, due mostly to reduced expectations for China, but improved export prospects to the EU offset the reduction to Asia.
Asia
The forecast for exports to China for fiscal 2011 is lowered $1.5 billion to $19.5 billion. The forecast is still a record and China is expected to finish the year as the largest U.S. market, though Canada should be close behind. A seasonal drop in exports to China was expected given the large shipments early in the year of soybean and cotton.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)
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