Flat forecast in global 2011/12 cotton consumption
Global 2011/12 production is forecast at a record 124.2 million bales, an 8-percent increase from the preceding year, as major Southern Hemisphere producers push for bigger crops. Brazil, the largest grower in the Southern Hemisphere, is expected to produce 9.0 million bales in 2011/12, unchanged from the previous year's record, as favorable market prices are expected to sustain planted area.
In Australia, an abundant supply of irrigation water, adequate soil moisture, and relatively higher market prices are expected to yield a record 5.0 million bales, up 4 percent from a year earlier. Australia's 2011/12 harvested area is forecast to rise 2 percent to a record 600,000 hectares.
China and India, the world's largest and second largest cotton producers, are forecast to grow 33.5 million bales and 27.5 million bales, up 10 percent and 8 percent, respectively, from the previous year. Harvested area in 2011/12 for China and India is expected to rise 7 percent and 12 percent from a year earlier, to 5.5 million hectares and 12.5 million hectares, respectively.
Pakistan and the United States are forecast to produce 10.0 million bales and 16.6 million bales in 2011/12, a 14-percent increase from Pakistan's previous crop and an 8-percent decrease in the United States. U.S. 2011/12 harvested area is forecast to decline 8 percent from a year ago, to nearly 4.0 million hectares.
The African Franc Zone and Central Asia are forecast to produce 2.9 million bales and 6.7 million bales in 2011/12, up 26 percent and 2 percent, respectively, from the previous year. World harvested area is forecast at 36.1 million hectares, up 8 percent from the previous year, while yields are forecast at 750 kg/ha.
World Cotton Trade Expected To Rise in 2011/12
World cotton exports in 2011/12 are forecast at 36.5 million bales, a 3-percent increase from the previous year, as Southern Hemisphere producers export record volumes from the bumper crops produced in 2010/11. Australia is forecast to export an all-time high of 4.3 million bales in 2011/12, up 71 percent from the preceding year. Brazil's 2011/12 exports are forecast at 3.8 million bales, a 90- percent increase from a year earlier. Exports from the African Franc Zone are forecast at 2.4 million bales in 2011/12, up 14 percent from a year ago.
India, the world's second-largest exporter of cotton, is forecast to export nearly 5.3 million bales in 2011/12, an increase of 3 percent from the preceding year. Exports in Uzbekistan are forecast at 2.8 million bales in 2011/12, a 6-percent increase from a year ago. The United States, the world's leading cotton exporter, is expected to export 11.5 million bales in 2011/12, down 20 percent from the previous year, with its lowest global trade share (32 percent) in a decade, due to both lower available supplies and stronger competition for market share.
As the world's largest cotton importer and consumer, China's demand for imports has a significant impact on world cotton trade and prices. China's 2011/12 imports are forecast at 14.0 million bales, up 17 percent from a year earlier and the second highest on record. China's actual 2011/12 import level will depend on how Chinese authorities implement its cotton “macro-control” policies.