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Index for cotton type 41-4 slumps
Nov '11
Liquidity in the Brazilian cotton market increased slightly in late October. However, most trades involved small volumes. Purchasers, which had low stocks or do not have product to receive in the short-term, were willing to trade. Consequently, cotton prices kept the downturn in Brazil in October.

The Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (CEPEA)/ESALQ Index for cotton type 41-4 (delivered in São Paulo city, payment in 8 days) dropped 8.8% in the accumulated of the month (between Sept. 30 to Oct. 31), and closed at 1.6762 real or 0.9894 dollar per pound on Oct. 31.

In general terms, purchasers did not seem to be concerned about supplies of the raw material because of the record production this year and the fact that there is still a good volume to trade – roughly 40% of the production, according to BBM (Brazilian Commodity Exchange).

In Brazil and in the world, agents wonder when purchasers will effectively return to the market to buy more expressive volumes.

The USDA forecast that the world cotton production might reach a record of 27.04 million tons in the 2011/12 crop, an increase of 8% in relation to the previous season. Demand, on the other hand, might be stable in the 2011/12 season, estimated to be 24.9 million tons.

CEPEA - Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics

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