Home / Knowledge / News / Textiles / NY cotton futures yo-yo back and forth
NY cotton futures yo-yo back and forth
Feb '13
The battle between spec longs and trade shorts has turned more even this week, as the market yo-yoed back and forth in volatile fashion. After the parabolic move to 84.00 cents last Thursday, the March contract corrected to a low of 80.18 cents over the following two sessions, from where decent support lifted values back up towards the 83 cents level. Tuesday’s attempt to take out the 84.00 high has been unsuccessful, which was seen as a minor victory for the bears.

However, even though the spot contract seems to stall, May (+195 points), July (+240 points) and December (+142 points) all posted new 8-month highs this week, both on an intra-day as well as on a closing basis. This is not insignificant, since in about two weeks May will take over from March as the lead month.

Overall open interest continued to increase, albeit at a slower pace, as it rose by 7’705 to 205’445 contracts over the last five sessions. This is the highest reading since late October, when open interest topped out at 208’031 contracts, and before that we have to go all the way back to the historic bull market of early 2011 to find larger bets in the futures market.

While March open interest dropped by nearly 7’000 contracts, May (+10’000), July (+3’000) and December (+2’000) all saw decent gains in their outstanding positions. This tells us that trade shorts are digging in, not willing to throw in the towel just yet. If anything, they keep increasing their 13 million bales net short position rather than covering it. In order to back up their bets, shippers have been busy adding to the certified stock this week, which is now at almost 167’000 bales if we count bales under review. This is the highest the certified stock has been in 19 months and it is likely to get even larger as we approach first notice day.

At 83 cents the futures market is currently outpacing the cash market and it is rendering Chinese imports at the 40% duty level too expensive. Also, there have been rumors that merchants are trying switch some US sales to other origins in order to free up cotton for delivery in New York. In other words, it looks like the bulls are starting to run into some headwinds that may make it difficult to keep the upside momentum going.  

US exports sales have slowed down somewhat last week due the firmer market, but they were still fairly impressive at 158’400 running bales for Upland and Pima combined. There were still 17 markets on the buyer’s list, but what spoiled this otherwise good report was a cancellation of 50’300 bales of Upland cotton out of China, which more than offset new sales of 39’100 bales to the same market. Shipments of 291’300 running bales remained above the pace needed to reach the current USDA target of 12.2 million statistical bales. Total commitments for the season now amount to 10.4 million statistical bales, of which 4.8 million bales have so far been exported.

Must ReadView All

Textiles | On 25th Oct 2016

Arvind to dilute 10% stake in brand business arm

Arvind Limited, one of India’s largest integrated textile and apparel ...

Courtesy: Commonwealth Bank of Australia

Textiles | On 25th Oct 2016

World’s first cotton shipment using Skuchain’s Brackets

The world’s first trade transaction involving shipment of cotton...

Textiles | On 25th Oct 2016

Cotton yield to increase to 568.29 kg/ha in 2016-17: CAB

At its first meeting for the cotton season 2016-17, the Cotton...

Interviews View All

Rashi Menda

Every fifth sale we make on Zapyle is a repeat purchase

Vidhyaa Shankar. S
A Ganapathi Chettiar

'The usage of knits is getting into the boundaries of woven fabrics'

Anshul Sood

‘Indian footwear market is nascent and largely a trend follower’

Lynda Kelly
Suominen Corporation

Suominen Corporation is a manufacturer of nonwovens as roll goods for...

Kerem Durdag
Biovation II LLC

Kerem Durdag, CEO, Biovation II LLC, provides an insight into future...

Eamonn Tighe
Nature Works LLC

Eamonn Tighe, Fibres and Nonwovens - Business Development Manager of...

Jay Ramrakhiani
Occasions Elegance Wear

It is believed that by early 19th century, Varanasi weavers had moved away ...

Igor Chapurin

"Now we can see the Russian trend in international fashion. And Russian...

Yash P. Kotak
Bombay Hemp Company

One of the directors of Bombay Hemp Company, Yash P. Kotak, speaks to...

Press Release

Press Release

Letter to Editor

Letter to Editor

RSS Feed

RSS Feed

Submit your press release on


Letter To Editor

(Max. 8000 char.)

Search Companies

October 2016

October 2016

Subscribe today and get the latest update on Textiles, Fashion, Apparel and so on.


Browse Our Archives


Advanced Search