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NYF cotton follows the outside markets
07
May '08
Overnight ICE opened at around unchanged level and started the Tuesday session with a narrow 40 point range and extreme light volume in the early morning. Immediate action was seen as the Chicago grain markets re-opened at good amount of gain.

As dollar weakened and crude oil futures made the new record high at $122 per barrel, NYF cotton followed the outside markets and created the intraday high at 70.98 basis N'08. As we saw resistance around the 71 cent level, good support was seen at the 69 cent level, as close to 740 contracts were waiting to buy at that level.

Crude oil futures price has soared today to the new record high above $122 on concerns of supply shortage. With the weaker dollar, investors are more encouraged to buy the market today, which pulled the general commodity prices higher. China's yarn and textile exports have seen decrease due to the strong Chinese currency, and the tight margin has forced mills to buy only hand to mouth.

As NYF cotton prices retraced for the past session, overseas buyers are also pulling back on their inquiries awaiting further price fall. West Texas received plenty of rain this week as farmers are getting ready to plant. Farmers may delay to see more rain before committing to plant to avoid the potential cost of replant, but the rain has been beneficial to the planting progress.

We saw a pull back in the market today supported by the weaker dollar and strong performance in grain markets, as well as in crude oil. Technically, we broke the strong support line at 70 cents in N'08 last week.

The cotton market feels like we are trying to put in a short term low near 69 cents as we have had three inside trading days in a row, and are starting to create a flag pattern which could break later this week. However, the 69 cent level has proved to be a strong support yet again. We are likely to trade sideways and in sync with outside commodities for the nearby trading sessions.

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