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Oil prices continue to rise
25
Jun '08
U.S. dollar falls and oil prices continue to rise which fuels a bounce in cotton today on a retest of the highs from last week. However, the market ran out of steam after grains failed to follow through higher.

The Fed report tomorrow is all but decided that there will be no change in rates, but there were some more negative reports on consumer confidence falling to 50% from 58% last month and 80% at the beginning of the year.

Volume was light again today with 10,000 futures and 7,000 options as we finish liquidating N'08. There were 1,471 notices issued yesterday as we seem to be changing hands from one merchant to another at similar levels that we did previously in K'08.

This does not equate to a bullish scenario since the spreads remain wider than full carry and the demand nearby is limited. U.S. cotton sales and exports on Thursday are not expected to be much higher than last week, but we may get a friendly acreage report on Monday when the USDA updates the number from March 31st which could have fallen from the original 9.38 million acres projected.

Technically, the market is looking toppy with several commodity sectors trading at contract highs. The MACD's are turning south recently in several of these sectors as we have been moving sideways and running into strong upside resistance.

Cotton will continue to follow the other commodities prices as the dollar and equity markets struggle, but our market is finding good resistance at these levels and will have to wait and see if it can break through or we eventually go lower.

At the moment, demand is dead, cert stocks are rising and we are seeing a slow down in the commodity index which could set us up for a pull back.

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